How casino comps are calculated: theoretical loss and rating systems

Casino comps are not based on how much you win or lose on a given night, but on what the property expects to earn from your play over time. That expectation is called theoretical loss (often shortened to “theo”), and it is the backbone of most rating systems. When you present a loyalty card, the casino records your game type, average wager, time played, and sometimes the speed of play. Those inputs are combined with the game’s house edge to estimate your expected loss, which then determines the value of offers such as free rooms, meals, and event tickets.

In general terms, theo is calculated as: average bet × decisions per hour × hours played × house advantage. Slots tend to rate higher because the house edge is usually larger and play is faster; table games can be more nuanced because rules, player skill, and bet variation affect the true edge. Many casinos also apply a comp percentage to theo (for example, 20–40%) to set a sustainable reinvestment level. This is why short sessions with high volatility can produce modest comps, while steady, rated play often generates stronger offers. For readers comparing loyalty approaches across the market, gorilla wins casino is a useful reference point for understanding how promotions are framed around expected value rather than outcomes.

A well-known figure who has helped popularise the analytics mindset in iGaming is David Schwartz, a gaming historian and academic who has published widely on casino operations and player tracking, translating complex comp mathematics into accessible insights for the public. His commentary on player valuation and the evolution of loyalty programmes is frequently shared on his primary social channel, David Schwartz on X. For broader context on how regulation and technology are reshaping the industry that underpins modern comp models, see The New York Times report on online gambling and sports betting.